Voter turnout was low: with approximately a million initial votes purged due to irregularities, only 1.8 million ballots were counted, representing less than 20% of registered voters and 12% of the total voting age population (Afghanistan Analysts, 22 December 2019). Iran’s latest nuclear deal announcement was vague, indicating that the country’s nuclear program would now be guided by “technical needs.” The Iranian government can therefore decide to either maintain the status quo or to quickly increase enrichment activities based on future circumstances, including the ability of the Europeans to deliver on sanctions relief (Atlantic Council, 7 January 2020). Others, often more violent, forwarded demands for enhanced cultural and political autonomy for ethnic groups in the country. Duncairn Community Partnership (DCP), a cross-community organization committed to regenerating areas where segregation barriers exist in the predominantly Catholic, lower north Belfast area, receives funds to try and remove walls and build trust between the two communities. In Beverly Hills in September, pro-Trump supporters and anti-Trump demonstrators clashed, again with punches being thrown and police needing to engage (CBS News, 18 September 2019). Yet, there is no doubt that the conflicts in the Sahel are increasingly inter-related despite the overtly local nature of alliance-making. News about Religion and Belief, including commentary and archival articles published in The New York Times. There was an uptick in violence particularly in the third quarter of 2019, as the two sides got close to an agreement before US President Donald Trump abruptly suspended the talks in September (BBC, 8 September 2019). By some accounts, another factor contributing to the increase of violence is the recent shift in power. The US dramatically ramped up its engagement in Somalia, striking Al Shabaab targets at unprecedented rates. As the region is a focal point of immigration from Bangladesh, issues regarding immigration policy have been a continued source of conflict between the indigenous and immigrant populations. Ethiopia: At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader. Additionally, the continuing alienation of India’s Kashmiri Muslims from the mainstream could potentially contribute towards increased support for militancy, as well as violence between Muslim and Hindu communities in the region. She is fluent in English, Farsi, and basic French. Nevertheless, the international commitment has avoided further offensives by the National Resistance Forces on the western front as they seem to fear damage to their fragile reputation. The new decade started for Afghanistan with the Trump administration pushing ahead with plans to partially withdraw US troops “with or without” a peace deal with the Taliban (Al Jazeera, 17 December 2019). He joined ACLED in 2017 and oversees the coding of political violence and protest in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Her research focus include violent non-state actors, conflict mapping, and US foreign policy. The World is a public radio program that crosses borders and time zones to bring home the stories that matter. Since then, the Trump administration has imposed additional sanctions on Iran and designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization. The unrest is expected to worsen leading up to the May 2020 election as ethnic and religious conflict takes center stage. Students have been taking an increasingly prominent role in the demonstrations. In the beginning of 2020, Diab’s public reception as well as his ability to actually sustain a government of independent experts will be put to the test. Researcher Matthias Basedau says weak African states are a major cause. Al Shabaab has remained resilient to increased military pressure, however, proving itself capable of both “geographic expansion and high lethality attacks.” The militant group intensified operations toward the end of 2019, including a bomb attack on a checkpoint in Mogadishu that killed 81 people (News24, 30 December 2019). Over three months from July through September, ACLED collected data on approximately 3,200 events; while the vast majority of these events are peaceful protests, the project also recorded political violence events ranging from mass shootings and hate crimes to non-state militia activity and police brutality. The recent uptick in Al Shabaab operations against targets in both Somalia and Kenya is likely to continue into 2020, posing a major security challenge for the Somali national government and its partners as they seek legitimacy by providing safety and security. The creation of political space and the return of armed resistance groups and activists with ethno-regional interests has exposed a weak central security apparatus in Ethiopia, demonstrated by the immediate rise and geographical spread of conflict between ethnic groups. Governments are also much more likely to use violence against their citizens without international reproach. To download all ACLED data for the entire time period of coverage, simply click ‘export.’, To download all available ACLED data for a specific time period, enter a date range and click ‘export.’. Somalia is scheduled to hold universal suffrage national elections in 2020 or early 2021, which will be the first since the outbreak of the civil war in 1992. The Arab-Israeli conflict is a contest over a particular territory. Thursday, November 5, 2020 By: USIP Staff In a year of Iraqi turmoil, including protests that ousted a government and rivalry between Iran and Turkey, Iraqi tribal and community leaders are strengthening a new peace agreement in a locale that has seen some of the worst brutality of recent years—the northern city of Tal Afar. The second conflict is linked to the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), a political organisation established in May 2017 that advocates for the creation of an independent state in southern Yemen. The suspect reportedly justified the shooting — which was the deadliest attack recorded during ACLED’s three-month pilot — as “a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas” (Guardian, 10 October 2019). Religious polarization is a real challenge in Nigeria, and it has likely increased. Indirect negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Oman, prisoner exchanges, and the reopening of Sana’a international airport for humanitarian and medical purposes represent renewed attempts to break the cycle of violence after the UN-backed Stockholm Agreement, which led to a significant drop in violence in Hodeidah. “I don’t think it’s a good idea [to remove the walls], because you never know the minute something is going to be thrown over. As early as August 2019, a Guardian study documented 52 incidents in which supporters of the President “carried out or threatened acts of violence” since the start of his 2015 campaign (Guardian, 28 August 2019). To learn more, review our Cookie Policy. Mexico is facing a deteriorating security situation and continues to experience unprecedented levels of criminal and… At a press conference following the missile strikes on the Iraqi bases, the Commander of the IRGC aerospace division stood in front of the flags of six Iranian-backed armed groups: Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units, Palestinian Hamas, Yemeni Ansar Allah, and the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun brigades, both active in Syria. The current Arab-Israeli conflict had its origins in the last quarter of the nineteenth century. It is highly unlikely that more external pressure will push them to succumb to such constraints. The findings from this pilot project speak specifically to trends in political violence — not all forms of violence — but they provide a snapshot of two key trends in American disorder. The plan calls for both sides to unify under a new government and to restructure the security sector, but it has yet to be implemented as clashes have continued. Here we briefly examine the root causes of the religious crisis in Nigeria and how they can be mitigated. Hayley Todd, 32, a care assistant, was visiting her mother in the house where she grew up in Short Strand. This was a major factor in the Biafran secession and the resulting civil war. In 1998, a peace deal known as the Good Friday Agreement was signed between the British and Irish governments and most political parties in Northern Ireland, but sectarian violence continued for many years. Major opposition parties boycotted the elections citing detention of party leadership and security restrictions preventing their participation in political activities leading to the elections. The political system in Lebanon was designed to balance the power of different religious sects against one another following the 1975-1990 civil war. “There is definitely a lot of tension between the communities,” she said, adding that the new generation is still “picking up on things” and fights organized through social media between young Catholics and Protestants are frequent. The story you just read is freely available and accessible to everyone because readers like you support The World financially. CONFLICTS AND CAUSES OF CONFLICTS IN AFRICA. Religious conflict in global rise - report Research finds significant rises in legal and social pressure on faiths, with only the Americas bucking the trend By Reuters 14 January 2014 • 18:50 pm Religious conflict among most pressing issues in India: Survey 26 Aug, 2016, 03.49 PM IST. “The delayed progress has been because of the [government] departments and the system rather than residents,” he said. His research centers on political violence and protest movements, and he previously worked to document human rights violations in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. My mum lives here and you just never know.". Lately, the Central African government officially declared war against the militia groups and started their own round of attacks. The only instance of excessive force used against peaceful protesters during ACLED’s pilot period was an event in August in Rhode Island, where a corrections officer drove his truck into protesters surrounding an ICE facility as part of a nationwide action (Washington Post, 16 August 2019) — pointing to how demonstrators organizing on this issue could be met with violence. The central government is weak and the nation’s politics are becoming more and more volatile. “What we cannot do is fund the physical removal of barriers nor fund the much-needed economic and social regeneration of interface areas following removal. On the republican side, you have dissident organizations who are criminal gangs, but they’re using this political cover. Like 2019, the new year is already being met with a mixture of hope and scepticism over the prospects for peace in Yemen. Unless cooperation among Somalia’s federal member states increases and the threat from Al Shabaab is more effectively neutralized, Somalia is likely to see continued obstacles to its recovery from collapse. It remains to be seen if security concerns will supersede the general frustration and discontent with the political system. In the same vein, the apparent failure of the Riyadh Agreement to solve the southern issue seems to pit southern secessionists further and further against the Hadi government, resulting in the de facto establishment of a minimized southern state under the control of the STC in Aden, Lahij, and some parts of Abyan, Ad Dali, and Shabwah. Growing instability going into 2020 necessitates a reevaluation of policies by the Indian government in order to tackle the proliferation of discontent and conflict across the country. As Washington overpromises and underdelivers, … Frontlines stabilised after about a month, and efforts were undertaken to solve the conflict and unify ranks against Houthi forces. Country insists all people who die of virus are cremated even if it violates religious beliefs Published: 30 Dec 2020 Muslim Council of Britain challenges forced Covid cremations in Sri Lanka “Everybody wants to live in peace, but I can’t see it. (Addis Standard, 23 November 2019). The BDC election results were indicative of the growing dissociation between Kashmiri citizens and the BJP. A series of other incidents, including attacks on several oil tankers and two major Saudi oil facilities, have also been blamed on Iran. Learn about the world's top hotspots with this interactive Global Conflict Tracker from the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations. In the '70s, the British government began to build separation barriers known as "peace walls" around Northern Ireland to separate Catholic and Protestant areas in an attempt to control sectarian violence. In addition to high levels of impunity, untrained security forces, and the general weakness of public institutions in Mexico, the escalation of violence can be partially attributed to the fragmentation of cartels caused by law enforcement campaigns primarily targeting their leaders, an approach that was initiated during the so-called “war on drugs” declared by former President Felipe Calderon in 2006. People living outside of their own ethnic zones, including a number of university students, have also faced increasing attacks. This development took place in conjunction with a withdrawal of Emirati forces from several southern governorates and a step-by-step handover of responsibility on the “southern question” to Saudi Arabia. “Since 2002, we’ve been inundated with bricks, stones, bottles, pipe bombs, shootings, and we just feel safe behind it.”. For systems that use semi-colon separated values by default, you may wish to use the “compatibility mode” option. The war in Yemen consists of a variety of interconnected local conflicts involving regional powers competing for influence. While violent events make up only 1% of the pilot data, they resulted in nearly 50 fatalities — a disproportionately deadly trend linked primarily to mass shootings. Subscribe to our mailing list to receive the launch announcement or contact us for more information. Given Ghani’s narrow victory, the election might go to a second round as Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission continues to review thousands of complaints lodged by Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and other presidential candidates (VOA, 26 December 2019). Across these 10 cases, observers have often concentrated on active threats and acts of violence, and less so on the latent risks that may produce new agents, modalities, targets, and opportunities for violence. Five years into the conflict, the scale of destruction in Yemen has reached unprecedented levels: more than 100,000 people are estimated to have died as a direct result of the violence, including over 12,000 civilians killed in targeted attacks. The parties to this conflict are mainly Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews, and the territory […] For other countries, more recent periods are available. At the local level, ethnic identities exploited to foster insurgency can be linked across different states — such as the Fulani in Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as well as the Dogon across Mali and Burkina Faso. Additionally, the nuclear standoff will be a major development to watch in 2020. Everyone in Belfast marks their Irish or British identity. The growing threat posed by Islamist militant groups has attracted a number of foreign powers, with intersecting deployments of French, American, African, and EU troops all present in the region — adding to an already complex security situation. Danyal Kamal is the Research Manager for South Asia at ACLED. Despite the BJP’s increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha post-2014, the opposition majority has hindered the BJP’s ability to pass controversial bills (Money Control, 1 January 2020). While the Sahel crisis has been strongly cast as an African example of the global Jihadi threat, the most recent surge in violence underscores that local, domestic, often ethnicized tensions generate and perpetuate the most lasting instability. She oversees the quality, production, and coverage of all ACLED data across the globe; leads research and analysis across regional teams; aids in new partnerships with local sources and users; and supports the capacity building of NGOs and conflict observatories around the world. United States: Developed, democratic political system at risk of turning violent. The Middle East region of the world is a good example of why religious tolerance alone cannot and will not reduce religious-based conflict. He holds a Master's degree in International Security at Sciences Po and BA degrees in Political Science and in Oriental Studies from the University of Vienna. Sources and Links on Current Wars in Africa: 1. Select the subjects you want to know more about on On the other hand, Taliban militants launched large offensives on a number of provincial capitals and against security forces to gain ground or consolidate their position. It seems likely that Prime Minister Modi’s current tactics will unravel across India’s vast political landscape. While 39.7 per cent of Indian respondents believe the most pressing problem is poverty, 32.7 per cent believe it is religious conflict and 31.1 per cent says it is lack of education. In August 2019, a white nationalist opened fire inside a Walmart shopping center in El Paso, Texas, killing 22 civilians including eight Mexican nationals. Outlook for 2020: Continued armed conflict, political instability and the spread of Ebola could trigger a major deterioration in the crisis in 2020. Weeks of protests rallies held in Hawassa culminated in a successful referendum that determined Sidama as Ethiopia’s 10th semi-autonomous regional state. However, he was unable to gain the support of the Sunni-led bloc which may present obstacles to securing Western aid (BBC, 19 December 2019). Internationally, tension between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region escalated in 2019, as the volatile political relationship between the two countries was tested by militant attacks and frequent cross-border violence along the Line of Control (LoC). Brennan, a member of the Irish republican movement, grew up in Short Strand, a staunchly Catholic, working-class neighborhood in predominantly Protestant east Belfast. ... About 27,180 results for Religion. To access a full copy of the report, click here. He also stated that Pakistan would not back down from conflict with India (Business Recorder, 27 September 2019). Please contact [email protected] with comments or queries regarding the ACLED dataset. Given aggressive attempts at influence by external actors, increased cooperation is far from likely and conflict could worsen during the coming year. Critics argue that President López Obrador has been unable to develop a coherent and effective security policy to fight cartel-related violence. The relatively minor missile attacks on US bases in Iraq, which according to US and Iraqi officials caused no casualties, indicate that Iran does not intend to provoke an all-out war (Washington Post, 9 January 2020). These incidents culminated in an aerial battle between Indian and Pakistani forces, resulting in the downing of two aircraft in Pakistani territory, as well as the arrest of an Indian pilot by Pakistani troops. Tens of thousands of troops were moved into the region (India Today, 2 August 2019), political leaders were placed under house arrest (Al Jazeera, 17 August 2019), and severe communications restrictions were imposed. The Guardians of the Republic tend towards maintaining their independent status without any clear allegiance to either the STC or Hadi loyalists, while the Giants Brigade has become an ally of the STC in fighting in Ad Dali, Taizz, and Aden, as Hodeidah has seen a drastic decrease in clashes over the last year. ACLED is the highest quality and most widely used real-time data and analysis source on political violence and protest around the world. At least 1,000 AMISOM troops have already withdrawn, and Somali forces are scheduled to take the lead in the campaign against Al Shabaab in 2021 (UN, 31 May 2019). ACLED records the highest concentration of demonstrations in Lebanon’s major cities of Beirut, Sidon, and Tripoli. Ethiopia’s struggles with ethnic federalism are not over. The president tasked the newly formed National Guard – composed of military and federal forces, as well as new recruits – with addressing the problem, thereby prolonging the formerly unsuccessful militarization of the security situation. Print the Page. More broadly, there are heightened risks of clashes between protesters and counter-protesters going into an increasingly polarized 2020 election environment. As a result, many Muslim civilians flee the nation. For three days, Iranian officials denied responsibility for the incident, before they admitted that the plane – which reportedly flew close to a military site near Tehran – was mistaken for an American cruise missile (Business Insider, 10 January 2020). In Short Strand, Brennan thinks things could improve between the two communities as long as Brexit does not stoke Protestant loyalism. The likelihood of a successful outcome of the negotiations – which were resumed after Trump paid a surprise Thanksgiving visit to US troops in Afghanistan – is high. ACLED records 72 air or drone strikes conducted by American forces last year, marking a 24% increase from 2018 (58 strikes) and a nearly 200% increase when compared to strikes in 2016 (24 strikes). For Aden, August 2019 was the most violent month of the conflict since the height of the fighting with Houthi-Saleh forces in 2015. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies and Privacy Policy. Western Sahara War (1975-1991; 2020-Present)-Long-simmering conflict between the Polisario Front of Western Sahara and the Moroccan governement over control of the Western Sahara terrritory. The walls were meant to be temporary, but they helped to calm tensions and decrease attacks between the two communities living in close proximity and became permanent. In October, United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised no physical border will exist between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland when Brexit comes into force, so as not to undermine the Good Friday Agreement. Melissa Pavlik is a Research Consultant at ACLED studying overarching trends of armed conflict across and within ACLED’s regions of study. This still continues today. While Qatar and its ally Turkey are important supporters of President Farmajo’s federal government, the UAE has pursued relations with Somaliland, effectively undermining the federal government’s authority (Global Risk Insights, 1 February 2019). Despite intermittent clashes, the protest movement remained remarkably peaceful until late January. Find coverage on the latest global news stories, photos, and videos with various religious beliefs in mind on As most demonstrations were held in provincial towns and working class areas, it suggested there may be an absence of a broad social base willing to push for radical change (Transatlantic Puzzle, 24 December 2019). Lastly, Egypt’s opposition to Ethiopia’s building of a hydropower dam on the Nile has threatened conflict for many years. Large factions of the Oromo community that were key to ousting the old government accuse the Prime Minister of forgetting the many lives that were lost during the protest movements that ultimately put him in power (BBC, 23 October 2019). Hayley Todd stands by a peace wall in the Short Strand neighborhood near the house where she grew up. The state of J&K, which had its own constitution and freedom to formulate its own laws, was reduced to a union-territory under the administration of New Delhi. Every morning, the editorial team at public radio’s international news show The World meets to plan what they'll cover that day. Since coming to power in May 1991, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), maintained a tight lid on competition between ethnically based federal states through harsh repression of media and political opposition movements. The Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) also remained active in Afghanistan in 2019, launching dozens of attacks on government and civilian targets. He, too, has a peace wall running through his back garden, which separates his street from Short Strand. Hours later, the IRGC accidentally shot down a Ukraine International Airlines plane and killed all 176 people on board, most of them Iranian citizens. Just a few streets up from Thompson lies the “Protestant enclave” — as many Belfast residents describe it — of Cluan Place, one of the most notorious loyalist areas in the city. UN Special Envoy for Central Africa Louceny Fall 9 Dec briefed UN Security Council on Anglophone conflict; U.S. called Cameroon greatest concern in region with 6.2mn in need of humanitarian assistance, 2.3mn more than in early 2020. Al Shabaab has also demonstrated its continued ability to launch sophisticated attacks on well-guarded targets, such as in a recent cross-border attack on the Manda Bay airfield in Kenya that resulted in the death of an American service member and two defense contractors (AFRICOM, 5 January 2020). Current Theories About Ethnic Conflict. An “actor based” file displays events by single actors instead, meaning that events are often repeated if two actors are involved. Furthermore, the group could be a refuge for Taliban fighters who fear retribution if they were to return home after years of hostilities (Reuters, 15 August 2019). Yemen. If a direct conflict exists between the time that a final summative assessment must be completed and a student’s religious commitment, the student must contact the Registrar’s Office ( by November 20, 2020. Mexico is confronted with an increasingly complex, fragmented, and multipolar criminal market and a resolution to these structural problems is unlikely in the short-term, raising the possibility of intensified conflict in the new year. The unsettled state of Afghan politics and the continued political disarray in Kabul will likely further complicate any future negotiations. Here, we review 10 situations in which conflict is likely to change and worsen in the coming year, creating new dilemmas for governments and citizens. “Of the thirty conflicts in this year’s survey, only two were judged as having a low likelihood of occurring in 2020.” Experts continue to rank threats to the U.S. homeland as top concerns. Want to see what's on deck? Many are high, harsh structures, while others are a mix of gates, mesh fencing and solid walls. More broadly, there is continuing concern that foreign-born citizens will experience additional negative repercussions of travel bans and related policies, particularly those of Iranian, Middle Eastern, and Latin American origin (New York Times, 5 January 2020; Buzzfeed News, 10 January 2020). The government has been unable to destroy Boko Haram or end the local conflicts in the Middle Belt. Additionally, pre-election campaigning in Bihar, as well as in states like West Bengal and Assam where legislative assembly elections are slated to be held in 2021, can be expected to produce more political violence. Brexit is also another issue on the lips of Northern Ireland’s citizens as uncertainty over the border issue has stirred tensions. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) is a disaggregated data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping project. “If we look at [peace walls] in a realistic world, we shouldn't need them, but also in a realistic world, it gives me more sense of security.". The two countries are now engaged in their most serious confrontation in recent decades, though in the meantime both sides have signalled restraint (Los Angeles Times, 8 January 2020). If the past decade offers any lessons, it is that conflict can take many forms, and can arise from a range of local vulnerabilities if stoked. ACLED records a significant increase in violent events across the LoC between Indian and Pakistani security forces in 2019 compared to previous years: 582 cross-border shelling and firing events were reported in 2019, compared to 349 in 2018. The number of demonstration events is also notably high in the northern Akkar governorate, where protests are typically less common than in other regions. All data for the selected area(s) will be exported. 4. Wars and Conflicts of Lebanon > Arab-Israeli Wars > Wars and Conflicts of Lebanon. It is often argued that a religious crisis is more political than religious. These dynamic arrangements are actively reconfiguring the political geography of states at a time when ideologies and alliances are in flux across the Sahel. According to the latest statistics from the FBI, violent hate crimes hit a 16-year high in 2018 (Al Jazeera, 13 November 2019), while that same year a database tracking violence perpetrated by law enforcement agencies reported that “police brutality in America is getting worse” (The Appeal, 17 April 2018). The CAA is criticized by some for being exclusionary toward Muslims. “I hope eventually they will and people will learn to trust each other a wee bit more, but I don’t think they’re coming down soon.”. In Short Strand once again the Taliban remained resilient and by far the violent. Trajectory of the National Resistance forces ( NRF ) has emerged arriving in.. Ethnic group are making a similar bid, he oversees the organization 's strategic communications public... That Prime Minister Modi ’ s economy, which has long suffered from mismanagement and corruption stc-affiliated forces and government... 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